Over the past few weeks, I stated the following in a few different comments: Sunday Special, January 19 2025 => The post-2016 election's upside momentum for this basket of assets highly sensitive to Trump and his policy stopped and brisky reversed at…
A very short one. 1. Today's was another confirmation that: => In the current context of raising concerns of rekindled inflation and overshooting data that forced the FED to materially shift its communication, recalibrate its easing path and upwardly revise its…
Final hurdle of this bloated week at all levels: the October BLS report 1. Expectations: => Headline expected at + 100k. Range: from -10k up to 180k => UNR and Participation rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. As well…
Not too many words needed. Just 3 graphs around the next few weeks CTAs' estimated flows depending on various scenarios in SP500, Bonds and Gold.... 1. SP500: HIGH ASYMMETRY 2. Bonds: HIGH ASYMMETRY: GOLD: slightly less extreme asymmetry. BUT still...
1. Tokyo inflation data, best leading indicator for the nationwide CPI that will be released on March 22nd (post-BoJ) came broadly as expected, displaying a sizable bounce compared to January, reflecting the fading impact of government subsidies rolled out last year to…
PART I: A very light agenda in the week to come: 1. Key highlight: the last DM Central Bank meeting, with the BoJ on Tuesday 2. Data: => EU: IFO + Final reading for November CPI + Schnabel and Lane on stage.…
I just wanted to bring some extra colours to fully grasp the magnitude of the ECB tightening, over a shorter period of time compared to the rest of the DM crowd (penultimate to pull the trigger, the last being the SNB):…
As we are entering into the most bullish seasonality of the year (Thanksgiving to year end), some big numbers: 1. Did we say positive seasonality? YES. And the latest bout of SP500's rally brought it back right where it should…
In the "Another Day - Same Outcome", I obviously should have added China.... 1. Beleaguered Yuan with Usdcnh at its highest level in more than a month: => The same mix: big question marks around the Chinese economy + expected new…
