Persisting Acute Tensions On The Tails
I would like to make a follow through to the comment I sent a couple of days ago around the brisk reversal of equity markets and some of the usual boosters we need to be well aware of in the modern…
It Was Different This Time
For once, this time was different... 1. You know that graph by heart now: one of the various illustrations of a suboptimal monetary policy transmission channel from the FED: unlike all the past tightening campaigns delivered by the US policymakers,…
Deep Friendship Can Easily Become Toxic
I am coming back to a topic I have already written about on many occasions BUT this is too crucial for not elaborating further, especially after the decision from Donald Trump to adopt a gradual approach as far as new levies are…
Assessing First
Over the past few weeks, I stated the following in a few different comments: Sunday Special, January 19 2025 => The post-2016 election's upside momentum for this basket of assets highly sensitive to Trump and his policy stopped and brisky reversed at…
2025 Looking Like 2024 For Rates Traders: RE-think , RE-price, RE-peat
1. A quick follow through to my comment sent yesterday around the December CPI, the US rates' celebration perfectly illustrated by the cuts for 2025 jumping to 42bps from 25bps a week ago and the comments from Chris Waller, arguing…
Hebdomada Horribilis
1. If the BoE more than likely welcomed December CPI report, showing... => A miss on the MoM headline inflation, + 0.3% vs a 0.4% consensus, bringing the YoY rate down to 2.5% vs 2.6% the prior month => A miss…
A Long Journey Ahead
China released overnight the December activity data as well as Q4 GDP / Final GDP for 2024. End result: guess.... 1. GDP => In an "extremely surprising" development, 2024 GDP successfully reached 5%, nothing less than the official target…
I Will Not Be The One Making The Final Decision BUT I Do Have A Strong Conviction
In A Nutshell: Extremely convoluted current set-up to say the least... => A welcomed miss on the core and superCore CPI gauges colliding with a beat on what you really need to live on a daily basis => A miss…
ALL Testing The Same Key Trendline Support
A BoJ clearly willing to "prepare" market participants for a rate hike next week. Little doubt about an acute PTSD syndrome, consequence of the bloodbath triggered by the hawkish hike of late July. 1. In a nutshell: barring any…
A Late Random Walk Through My “Library”
A completely random comment to finish the day. I was looking at some of my homemade graphs and picked a few that looked particularly interesting at the current juncture. 1. Risk Parity Celebration Day = anything but a surprise.... => January…