Author: christophe

First FOMC of 2025. A short preview as I see no reason to expect any surprise from today's US policymakers gathering.   1. Today's most likely outcome => Pausing: A December FOMC that cemented the hawkish shift of the FED already making…

1. I don't think there is any need to spend too much time on the 36 hours' price action across all the asset classes: a brisk reversal after Monday morning's outsized moves. A very simple and straightforward confirmation: US 5yrs Nominal Yield, Nasdaq, DXY,…

1. An epic start of the week. With a long list of key highlights ahead of us: => Wednesday, January 29:  ** Riksbank: = another 25bps cut priced in at 75%, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.25%   **…

1. The set-up going into this new week was already so challenging.... => Uncooperative data to close last week with: ** An unexpected pronounced slowdown of the US services activity in the first weeks of 2025: January Preliminary Services PMI missing…

China released its last set of data ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday. Outcome: dreadful January PMis   1. Loss of activity momentum ahead of the New Year festivities => Both PMIs handily missing their respective consensus: ** Manufacturing gauge…

I would like to make a follow through to the comment I sent a couple of days ago around the brisk reversal of equity markets and some of the usual boosters we need to be well aware of in the modern…

For once, this time was different...   1. You know that graph by heart now: one of the various illustrations of a suboptimal monetary policy transmission channel from the FED: unlike all the past tightening campaigns delivered by the US policymakers,…

I am coming back to a topic I have already written about on many occasions BUT this is too crucial for not elaborating further, especially after the decision from Donald Trump to adopt a gradual approach as far as new levies are…